Wednesday is a First Alert Weather Day

The above-normal warmth and high humidity remain in place for all of Central Texas for the rest of the work week, with temperatures rising even more for Memorial Day Weekend! All of the warmth and humidity in place is fuel for some thunderstorms that could become strong to severe over the next few days. As far as rain chances go, they go up, especially for Wednesday and possibly for Thursday, with some isolated late day storms possible into the holiday weekend. For most, Tuesday has been a quiet, but very warm and humid day across Central Texas, but we’re keeping our eyes out on the dryline out west for a stray strong thunderstorm to develop through the evening. A stray storm or two could form west of I-35 with large hail and strong wind gusts, but we likely won’t have enough of a spark to get the storms going. If  a storm forms, it could push into cities and towns west of I-35 before fizzling out shortly after sunset. Overnight, we stay cloudy, warm, and muggy. Morning lows will only drop down to around the mid 70s! Mostly cloudy skies will be here to stay for the day Wednesday. Highs will reach back into the upper 80s and low 90s with heat index values approaching 100° again for the afternoon!

Rain chances increase Wednesday thanks to a cold front approaching from the north. The position of this front will determine who has the better chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Storm chances for Central Texas are once again not guaranteed. Most in our area are under a level 2 severe weather risk Wednesday, but a level 3 severe weather risk is in place from Hamilton County to Hill County northward into the Metroplex. Storms that develop will likely fire up along and near the frontal boundary and could produce very large hail and strong wind gusts and maybe an isolated tornado. With the risk for severe storms Wednesday is a First Alert Weather Day! Right now, it looks like the front is going to stall out somewhere just to our north near the Metroplex during the afternoon tomorrow, which is where storms are most likely to form first during the afternoon hours. If the front sinks a bit farther south, our area has the higher chance for severe storms. Storms could fire up as early as 4/5 PM, but they’ll be more than likely after 6 PM. Tomorrow’s storms to the north should sink southward into our area and should gradually weaken as they move in, but still could produce severe weather during the evening hours. Storms that develop or move into our area should fizzle out likely before midnight and we’ll be quiet, warm, and muggy heading into Thursday morning.

Wednesday will bring us the best severe storm chances this week, but there’s the chance for more showers and storms on Thursday! The stalled frontal boundary helps to keep the atmosphere unsettled and the prior day’s storms will likely leave a remnant boundary across the area that could help to spark storms Thursday potentially as early as the pre-dawn hours. The good news about storms moving through earlier in the day means that the severe weather threat will likely be a bit lower, but strong storms remain possible with gusty winds and hail. Forecast models are not in good agreement with IF storms will actually get going, but we’ll be monitoring this potential closely. There could be some heavy rain that could fall in our area, so there may be a concern for flooding on an isolated basis. With extra cloud cover around and rain and storm chances Thursday, highs look to be a little “cooler” and closer to normal into the mid to upper 80s for Thursday afternoon… But as our rain chances go down heading into Memorial Day weekend, temperatures begin to heat up. As we push into Memorial Day weekend, high temperatures will be boosted into the low-to-mid 90s with heat index values likely near and above 100° Friday through Monday! With all the heat and humidity still in place, we could see an isolated late day thunderstorm develop each afternoon this weekend, but most will remain free of storms. We will be watching for the possibility of another cold front that could move in Monday/Tuesday of next week, which could increase our rain chances and hopefully bring us a cool down and a break from the very high humidity. More on that to come! For now, stay weather aware and have those ways to stay cool in these hot and steamy conditions!

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