Published: May 15, 2025 at 1:35 PM CDT|Updated: May 17, 2025 at 5:09 PM CDT
Isolated severe storms are expected Saturday afternoon. A few scattered storms are possible Sunday, but stronger chances may return again by Monday.(KWTX)
The unseasonable heat and humidity building across the region over the last few days will help to bring Central Texas a few days of severe storm opportunities. Although storm chances may not be terribly high, a few strong storms are possible on Saturday. Saturday is a First Alert Weather Day.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Issued until 10PM
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 10 PM(KWTX)
The main risk from thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be large hail and damaging winds. Please keep in mind if you have outdoor activities that there will likely be a lot of lightning with these thunderstorms as well.
The most intense storms over the next two days will likely form Friday afternoon with the strongest storms containing very large hail, strong wind gusts, and potentially a tornado. The severe weather hazards remain the same with Saturday's storms, but the overall hail size and maximum wind gusts should be a bit lower.(KWTX)
Nearly all storms that form Friday and Saturday may contain, on average, half-dollar (1.25″) size stones, but there will likely be a few storms that produce hail larger than golf-ball size. With the amount of energy available for storms, hail could potentially be as large as baseball size!
Storm Timing
Since the dry line will end up west of Highway 281 Saturday afternoon, all Central Texans are under threat for severe weather. The storms on Saturday should also be a bit more widespread as well.
Futurecast shows initial isolated storms Saturday afternoon, again as early as 4 PM, quickly turning into a cluster of storms before drifting eastward. The slower movement of the initial storms Saturday will lend itself to a risk of flash flooding, especially west of I-35 during the later afternoon and early evening hours.
Saturday's storms will be similar-ish to Friday's storms. The dry line will spark those storms after around 4 PM. While the storms will initially be on an isolated basis, they'll quickly turn into a broken line of storms which will blast through the area late-afternoon and through the early evening hours. Severe storms are expected to end before 11 PM, but there's a chance the storms don't cluster up as quickly as expected which would keep severe storm chances around for a bit longer.(KWTX)
Saturday's storms will be similar-ish to Friday's storms. The dry line will spark those storms after around 4 PM. While the storms will initially be on an isolated basis, they'll quickly turn into a broken line of storms which will blast through the area late-afternoon and through the early evening hours. Severe storms are expected to end before 11 PM, but there's a chance the storms don't cluster up as quickly as expected which would keep severe storm chances around for a bit longer.(KWTX)
Saturday's storms will be similar-ish to Friday's storms. The dry line will spark those storms after around 4 PM. While the storms will initially be on an isolated basis, they'll quickly turn into a broken line of storms which will blast through the area late-afternoon and through the early evening hours. Severe storms are expected to end before 11 PM, but there's a chance the storms don't cluster up as quickly as expected which would keep severe storm chances around for a bit longer.(KWTX)
Saturday's storms will be similar-ish to Friday's storms. The dry line will spark those storms after around 4 PM. While the storms will initially be on an isolated basis, they'll quickly turn into a broken line of storms which will blast through the area late-afternoon and through the early evening hours. Severe storms are expected to end before 11 PM, but there's a chance the storms don't cluster up as quickly as expected which would keep severe storm chances around for a bit longer.(KWTX)
Saturday's storms will be similar-ish to Friday's storms. The dry line will spark those storms after around 4 PM. While the storms will initially be on an isolated basis, they'll quickly turn into a broken line of storms which will blast through the area late-afternoon and through the early evening hours. Severe storms are expected to end before 11 PM, but there's a chance the storms don't cluster up as quickly as expected which would keep severe storm chances around for a bit longer.(KWTX)
After sunset, storms are expected to gradually march eastward, likely crossing over I-35, before fizzling out east of I-35. Saturday may be a bit hotter than Friday and the close proximity of a frontal boundary may help to keep storms hanging around for longer than they will Friday. Although storms should gradually lose strength after sunset, severe storms may linger through Midnight Sunday with rain likely coming to a close by 3 AM at the latest.
Flash flooding could be a concern for some
In addition to the severe storm risk, the moisture-rich atmosphere should lend itself to prolific downpours within the strongest storms.
If you see rain over the next two days, it'll likely average out to around a half-inch of accumulation. However, there will be some spots that miss out on storms and rain. There will also be some spots that may see prolific downpours too pushing isolated rainfall totals above 2"!(KWTX)
While a fair few of us should receive around a half-inch of rain from these storms, the strongest storms may produce upwards of 2.5″ to 3″ of rain per hour! Those hefty rainfall rates may give way to flash flooding.
There will be some spots that do not see ANY rain at all Friday or Saturday, but there will be some spots that could receive upwards of 2″ or even more rain.
