A soggy, but not a washout, Labor Day weekend ahead!
The cold front that can’t decide where it wants to end up is set to finally push through Central Texas today and will clear the area this weekend. Even with the front clearing the area, upper-level disturbances are set to push through the state over the course of the weekend which will increase the chances for rain all weekend long. In fact, we’re expecting 1″ to 2″ of rain to fall through Monday. It should NOT be a weekend washout, but plan for some indoor activities (like watching college football all day Saturday. Go Gators!)
Showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast today as the cold front sinks into Central Texas. This front will ooze through and take nearly the entire day to move from northern Hill County this morning to southern Bell County by sunset. The slow-moving front means that temperatures will still warm up into the 90s and heat index values may climb above 105° in a few spots, but we should see a temperature drop late this afternoon with the scattered rain and storms bubbling. A few stray showers are possible this morning (and, realistically, at any point today), but the best storm chances arrive after 2 PM. By that time, the front should be draped along Highway 84, so it’ll be the southern half of the area that has the best chance for scattered showers and storms. Not everyone will see storms today, but storms could contain gusty winds, heavy downpours, and lightning and thunder! We’ll reach today’s high temperatures early-to-mid afternoon before the front slides through. Most of us should be dry for Friday night football games, but we can’t rule out a few scattered showers and weakening storms through 9 PM.
The front clears the area, but the first of a few upper-level disturbances will push through Saturday. We’ll likely see a wave of showers and storms push toward our area from the northwest overnight. While these storms may fizzle out as they arrive, we’ll still have a chance for scattered rain in the morning. Morning rain chances are near about 30%, but those chances will climb in the afternoon to near 40%. Forecast model data is suggesting a mostly dry afternoon, but the disturbance will be overhead throughout the day and that likely kicks up a few more scattered storms later in the day. With the extra clouds and the rain, highs will likely only reach the mid-80s for highs! If we don’t see much afternoon rain, expect highs closer to 90°.
If there’s going to be a near-washout day, Sunday may be it. We’ll likely see scattered rain in the morning hours and another chance for scattered storms in the afternoon too. Some of us may see a break in the rain midday and potentially into the afternoon hours, but cities and towns west of I-35 may see rain more often than not on Sunday! With even more clouds and even higher rain chances, near 70%, high temperatures will only reach the upper 70s and lower 80s! Labor Day Monday should be the driest day of the upcoming holiday weekend, but a large part of Monday’s forecast depends on whether or not Sunday’s upper-level disturbance pushes out of the area or if it stalls out. It’s entirely possible that Monday’s rain chances will need to go up from the 30% chance they’re at right now, but we’re holding out hope for only a few isolated-to-scattered showers. Highs will still be on the cool side with highs in the mid-80s.
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