Feelin’ fall like ahead of falling rain this weekend
Consistency is out the window, y’all! Happy cold front season! We’re going to enjoy a BEAUTIFUL Wednesday of weather today with cooler-than-normal morning temperatures and slightly warmer-than-normal afternoon highs, but two more cold fronts over the next seven days will bring us a weather change pretty much day in and day out. The next big cold front likely won’t arrive until next Tuesday, but the next rainmaking cold front pushes in Saturday.
Although there will be some pockets of warmer temperatures mixed in here and there, we’re generally out the door with morning temperatures in the 50s. Expect a lot of sunshine today with relatively calm winds and with temperatures that’ll steadily warm and settle in the low-to-mid 80s late-day. Temperatures this afternoon will be around as hot as they were yesterday afternoon, but with the added benefit of having the beautiful start to the morning. Today’s kind of crisp morning temperatures won’t be hanging around for long though because we’re expecting warmth and humidity to pull back across the area. We’ll start out warmer in the morning in the upper 50s Thursday with afternoon highs warming into the mid-to-upper 80s. The sunshine in the morning will turn to more clouds late in the day before our weekend storm system arrives.
A slow-moving upper-level low that’s cut off from the jet stream will lumber eastward for the remainder of the work week. The upper-level low arrives Friday in the state, but it won’t actually pull away until Sunday giving us our best chance for rain that we’ve seen (and unfortunately will see) for the entire month of October. Friday will likely be dry with morning temperatures in the mid-60s warming into the mid-80s only as mostly cloudy to overcast skies take over. The slow-moving nature of the storm system means that we really won’t be under threat for showers or storms until maybe late in the afternoon. Daytime and early evening rain chances are near 30% only, but we’re expecting those rain chances to climb overnight as what should be a broken line of non-severe storms moves toward the area. Rain may be heavy, there will be some gusty winds, and there should be a decent amount of lightning and thunder, but widespread severe weather is not likely. The leading edge of the overnight line of showers and storms should gradually push through and depart the area around daybreak Saturday, but the upper-low staying stuck overhead means widely scattered to numerous showers and storms will hang around for a good chunk of the day, especially for the morning and midday hours Saturday. We are expecting rain coverage to decrease a bit during the afternoon hours leaving a few hours of dry time, but another push of rain may be around Saturday night into early Sunday morning. As far as rain totals go, we’re expecting around an inch of rain for most with isolated 2″ to 3″ totals possible for some.
While some carry over rain is possible early Sunday morning, we’ll dry out during the day. High temperatures Saturday with the rain falling likely stay capped in the mid-70s with just a slightly warmer day Sunday in the upper 70s as sunshine starts to return. Because our weekend storm system isn’t attached to colder Canadian air, we’ll warm up quickly with temperatures rebounding back into the lower 80s on Monday. Yet ANOTHER cold front is set to move through next Tuesday and this should bring us the coolest air of the season so far! The big storm system pushing through the eastern half of the country is the reason for the season next week, but there’s some question marks about how far westward the chilly air will be. For now, we’re expecting morning temperatures late-week in the 40s and lower 50s to warm into the upper 60s and low-to-mid 70s for highs. Should the cooler air stay to our east, we’ll likely see temperatures closer to 80° late in the week.
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