A very soggy start to the weekend could lead to some flash flooding
The old adage is that you end a flood with a drought and you end a drought with a flood. Yet again, it seems to hold up. After one of the rainiest summers in history, most of September and (so far) all of October has been BONE DRY across Central Texas and a good chunk of the state as well. A powerful storm system pushing into the area this weekend will bring us high rain chances, potentially a few stronger storms, and potentially may drop multi-inch rainfall totals across Central Texas! It won’t be a weekend washout, but you’ll want an indoor plan in mind for any Saturday plans you may have.
We’re gearing up for this storm system to push through Central Texas with warmth and humidity returning to the fold today. It’s still going to be a fairly nice day of weather for us, but we’re expecting extra cloudiness, extra humidity, and maybe even a stray sprinkle or two. If we’re going to see a stray shower, the best chances will be mid-morning through early afternoon with a blip or a bloop showing up. Outside of that, it’s going to be generally just a warmer day of weather. Instead of kicking off the day with temperatures in the 40s and 50s, we’re out the door in the upper 50s and lower 60s. With a mix of sunshine and clouds throughout the day, temperatures will warm up into the mid-80s with a few upper 80s possible if sunshine peeks through the clouds enough.
Rain chances will climb during the day on Friday, but the vast majority of the daytime hours Friday will be dry. Morning temperatures will start out in the mid-to-upper 60s with a few scattered light showers moving through during the morning near and west of I-35. We’ll likely also see another few scattered light showers during the afternoon, again mostly west of I-35, with overall daytime rain chances will be 30%. With mostly cloudy to overcast skies, we’ll technically have cooler daytime temperatures, but we’ll still stay above average with highs in the mid-80s.
Although most of the daytime hours Friday will stay relatively dry, the rain chances climb after sunset Friday as a line of thunderstorms pushes in from the west. We’ll likely start to see these storms impact cities and towns west of I-35 between 8 PM and 11 PM. For the I-35 corridor, including parts of Coryell, Bell, McLennan, Hill, and Falls County, expect Friday night’s storms to blow through between 10 PM and 1 AM. For those east of I-35, showers and storms will arrive closer to and after midnight. The leading edge of this line of storms may contain some instances of gusty winds and hail, but the overall severe weather risk remains low with just a few isolated severe storms possible. We’ll also likely see a very quick half-inch to inch-and-a-half of rain just from this wave of overnight showers and thunderstorms. Rain should steadily push out of the area during the overnight time period, but we may still either hang on to some of the overnight rain east of I-35 through daybreak.
The bulk of the rain from this storm system will push through the area overnight Friday into Saturday morning, but the slow-moving nature of the storm system means there will be likely at least one more round of widespread rain across the area. As of now, it looks like the second round of rain arrives mid-morning Saturday before departing around mid-afternoon. It will NOT rain all day long and there will for sure be some breaks in the rain here and there, but it may be raining more often than not and especially so east of I-35. The round of rain pushing through during the daytime hours Saturday likely won’t be the last round but it may be the last widespread round of precipitation. Another chance for a few scattered showers and non-severe storms arrives near and after sunset Saturday, but those showers and storms should depart during the overnight hours leading to a likely completely dry day Sunday. Temperatures Saturday will only warm into the mid-70s thanks to the rain, but some of the extra sunshine Sunday will boost us back into the upper 70s late-day.
Another big change in the weather arrives next week! The weekend storm system is the rainy one, but next week’s storm system (which is basically just a cold front) will usher in crisp fall air! Temperatures Monday in the lower 80s will drop into the mid-70s Tuesday and stay in the lower 70s for much of the rest of the week! In addition to the cooler afternoon temperatures, morning lows will dip into the mid-to-upper 40s for the end of next week!
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